November 15, 2006

New World Order – Move First or Die First



I just purchased the XBOX 360 from Microsoft. This is the story of what the Redwood giant is upto and why and how I for one totally believe they will be the eventual winners of this closely fought Game Console war.

Who are the contestants ?

For a start – Nintendo, a very old and recognized brand in this space. Sony, again coming with their exceptional brilliance with the PS series. And now MS, a software company totally not connected to gaming consoles in any way except ‘developing’ the games. We here will be talking about only the XBOX and the PS3. The XBOX Launched in India this Diwali and the PS3 is due out by April 2007.

MS with its standard DVD drive is betting the market will continue to use DVD’s as a standard format for Games and that will remain so for some time to come. Sony on the other hand has placed all its chips on a delayed launch of the PS3. The PS3 carries a BluRay drive which can only read BluRay disks. Nintendo is betting its Wi (pronounced as WE) on a more interactive controller. Wonderful concept, except that there is really no telling what the end customer will choose. In India though, the story will be very much based on price.

When the BluRay association okayed the concept, Sony lashed out and grabbed it. The idea was simple. Today’s games are Visually, ergonomically and tastefully getting better by the minute. Game developers are only looking for an excuse to make games with more detailed facial expressions, better sound, more enthralling graphics. So as the games continue to get only better, they simultaneously need more space. This space could be on the HDD or on your removable Disk like a DVD. Today’s standard DVD’s can store upto 8 GB of data. BluRay claims they will be able to store upto 50Gb of data on a single disk. So this can only mean game developers now have an open field to develop games that can consume more space.

When Sony accepted the BluRay technology, MS was left with little choice. But much to surprise of many, MS decided to stick to a regular DVD drive. The reason – many believe the reason was to get a market share from many emerging markets like India where the craze of Multiplayer gaming and spending money on such form of entertainment had still not taken wings. So MS betted on a lower end technology, hoping the cost advantage will get more units out of showrooms.

So where is the problem ?

There are already games that consume 4 DVDs! Imagine how irritating it is for a gamer who has to get up and continue to change disks. Priced at USD 300 and about INR 27K in India, the XBOX is sure as hell not cheap. But it’s still selling. Imagine when the delayed PS3 launches at an estimated price of INR 48K, god only knows how many people will be willing to purchase the unit just because they don’t want to get up in the middle of a game to change disks.

A Rose always has a thorn and so is the same with the XBOX. Although it may make more economic sense right now, should the BluRay pick up as a trend (most disruptive technologies take time to take off), it will be only Sony that will emerge as the true winner. Game developers today aren’t investing on BluRay and definitely aren’t going to develop games just cause BluRay is awesome. They need to see the market shifting towards its acceptance.

Just launched in Japan, the PS3 has only 4 games to its credit today. This means that if I buy a PS3 today, I only get 4 possible games to play. I don’t know how long I will have to wait before another game is launched. On the other hand, one year old, the XBOX gives me more than 300 game titles to play, although not all of them are available in India. Not only that, I also get more than 2 Million Gamers worldwide on the XBOX LIVE.

So you see, it’s not only the early launch of the XBOX in India that may work up MS revenues but also the fact that the software giant may be very accurately estimating a true Indian’s appetite for technology.

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